Is AI threatening “human” jobs?
The rapid progress of digital technologies, in particular, the artificial intelligence (AI) has caused lively debates in a society, dividing both ordinary folks and experts into two opposing camps. Representatives of one side believe in Terminator-style apocalyptic scenarios anticipating the inevitable death of humanity. Others are certain that real threats from AI will not occur in the nearest future, although it’s better to be vigilant, especially when it comes to ethical issues. As in any dispute, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. So, let’s try to stay as objective as possible and consider the facts and statistics.
A study conducted by OpenAI, the developer behind the sensational Chat GPT chatbot demonstrated the potential influence of language models on the future of the labor market. It defined a list of professions that could be affected the most. The list of “vulnerable” jobs included mathematicians, translators, writers, web designers, PR specialists, auditors, accountants, proofreaders, blockchain engineers, reporters, journalists, zootechnicians, data researchers who conducted this study and many others. Most of the listed professions have 80% to 100% chance of being affected by the AI. Clearly, all these jobs have something in common – application of sign systems (numbers, words). Digital data analysis and work with texts involve tasks that can now be handled by the AI in a much faster way, but is it really better?!
A significant breakthrough in machine learning came with the invention of the neural network algorithm. It has made possible for the AI to learn and recognize speech, play chess, draw, compose music, translate texts, diagnose diseases, etc. But so far, artificial intelligence is used rather as an auxiliary tool. Of course, it can take over even some of the tasks required by creative jobs, but the technology still needs supervision, so it plays the role of an assistant rather than a competitor.
According to McKinsey & Company, AI will allow to automate about 30% of constituent work activities by 2030, and 1 in 16 workers will be forced to change the profession (most likely, shifting towards manual labor).
Therefore, in the coming decade, humanity is more likely to face the labor market reformation instead of total unemployment. Experts claim that more radical changes will be possible no earlier than in 40-50 years. Thus, we have enough time to develop legal, ethical, and economic tools to regulate the labor market taking the AI progress into account. Moreover, the artificial intelligence shouldn’t be our prime concern right now, as we face the development of a more unfamiliar concept, the artificial consciousness. It would be capable of solving an unlimited range of intellectual tasks, gaining self-awareness and thinking autonomously from humans.
